Long term technical indicators

Long term technical indicators

Several major long-term trends shape the potential for economic growth around the world. The OECD CIRCLE project long term technical indicators to identify how feedback from poor environmental quality, climatic change and resource scarcity affect economic growth, and how policies may alter this. It focuses on a dynamic, integrated, and disaggregated analysis of how land, water and energy interact in the biophysical and economic systems. Unless more stringent policies are adopted, findings point to a significant increase in global emissions and concentrations of air pollutants, with severe impacts on human health and the environment.

This report provides a new detailed quantitative assessment of the consequences of climate change on economic growth through to 2060 and beyond. It focuses on how climate change affects different drivers of growth, including labour productivity and capital supply, in different sectors across the world. This report provides an analysis of how climate change damages may affect international trade in the coming decades and how international trade can help limit the costs of climate change. It analyses the impacts of climate change on trade considering both direct effects on infrastructure and transport routes and the indirect economic impacts resulting from changes in endowments and production. This report presents a review of existing approaches to estimate the costs of inaction, as well as the benefits of policy action, for air pollution. This report provides an analysis of 51 critical minerals for the OECD countries as a whole, both today and in 2030, in order to identify how possible trends in economic development will affect minerals criticality in the future. This paper presents a framework to include feedbacks from climate impacts on the economy in integrated assessment models.

This report focuses on the effects of climate change impacts on economic growth. World population is projected to reach over 9 bn and the world economy is projected to nearly quadruple. 3-6 degrees C warmer by the end of the century. Urban air pollution would worsen, with the number of premature deaths linked to particulate matter doubling to 3. In the coming decade, the competition for scarce land is projected to intensify severely, threatening global food supply and increasing pressure to continue deforestation. 2050 and climate change becoming the fastest growing driver for this loss. In order to address these environmental challenges, governments need a better understanding of the net benefits of action.

Source: Environmental Outlook to 2050, OECD, 2012. The Environmental Outlook to 2050 presented a one-way analysis of the impacts of socio-economic develop-ments on the environment, but the available tools did not allow for a two-way analysis that included the feedbacks of environmental pollution, climate damages and resource bottlenecks to the economy. A broad global assessment that encompasses the economic growth implications of several environmental challenges as well as resource scarcity and that explicitly look at trade-offs and synergies between them can shed new light on the scale of global environmental challenges for the economy. It also paves the way to assess the benefits of policy action.

The Environmental Outlook to 2050 estimated the costs of selected policy actions. However, these costs of action did not take into account the benefits of these policies. Unless more ambitious policies are implemented to reconcile economic growth with conservation and sustainable use of the environment and natural resources, the costs of inaction could be significant. When devising new policies, it is essential to take a systems approach, and to stress the inter-linkages among different environmental challenges. These inter-linkages occur not least through the shared enabling environmental media. These media provide critical economic and environmental services. For instance, freshwater is important for irrigation in agriculture, cooling in industry and energy production and as drinking water.

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